2024 Scouting Report: QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
My favorite ‘pure’ QB talent in this draft. Penix is fearless almost to a fault, but he is so good and so strong that he has earned that chip on his shoulder. Going into this study I had a feeling that Penix was going to be my favorite QB in the class and after watching Williams, Maye, and McCarthy first, Penix fourth, I can say fairly confidently that he will be the best QB in the class, pending fireworks from Daniels or Nix. Penix comes from a good background and has faced a lot of injuries in his lengthy college career. The injury concerns are holding him back from being a top 3 pick in the draft this year, and I can understand that as there have been serious injuries, especially the ACL. I view his injury differently, I think it shows his character and drive to play football. He has overcome so many injuries that may have been career-ending for the right person but Penix has overcome it all, he has dealt with people saying he can’t play because he’s old and broken, but instead of bending the knee he rose up and spat in their faces while leading Washington to the National Championship.
In terms of injuries, I have a different opinion on them and age that I haven’t seen too much on the internet but there are a few others out there with the same beliefs, apologies for the rant in advance.
- As time passes our technologies, treatments, and medication improve year-over-year. That is a fact. A fact that everyone seems to ignore. I believe that sports, especially sports media, are unaware of or ignorant of the fact that the medical world is constantly improving and revolutionizing. In 2011 Adrian Peterson tore his ACL, returned a few months later, and won the 2012 MVP, the last non-QB to do so. People see that as an outlier but recently I’ve been viewing that as the start of the medicine we have today. Players are recovering from injuries faster than ever, and you almost need to update the data every other or even every single year as we are making advancements so quickly. For this reason, as we learn more about injury prevention, injury treatment, and how to rehab those injuries, ACL tears might not be a killer for a full season+. There are even slight murmurs Nick Chubb may be ready to play a full workload early in the 2024 season after he tore just about everything you can tear in a knee. We are in the year 2024 people, stop assuming sports medicine hasn’t advanced since 2010. Back to the topic on hand…
People haven’t raised this as a concern too much but Penix has been quite inaccurate against top 40 defenses since 2022.
2022
v. Oregon State – 57.7%
v. Wash State – 58.1%
v. Texas (Bowl game) – 59.3%
2023
v. Oregon – 59.5%
v. Utah – 57.1%
v. Oregon State – 46.4%
v. Oregon (again) – 69.2%
v. Texas (CFP) – 76.3%
v. Michigan (CFP) – 52.9%
This surprised me after watching the games because Penix didn’t seem too ‘off’ in any of these games, even on the biggest stage against Michigan he was hitting receivers but for some reason, they weren’t turning into completions. What I get from this, when seeing the boxscore not following what my eyes are seeing, something else is must be going on. I trust my own scouting and am willing to adapt when proven wrong, but the most accurate QB in NFL history, Drew Brees, had accuracy concerns at Purdue but still LOOKED good… at least I think so when looking at old clips. This is not me comparing Brees and Penix but just that there may be more context to the disconnect I see in the film v. box score.
I think Penix will be a high-quality NFL starter but his career will be a bit dependent on where he is drafted. He may need a bit of a Josh Allen treatment, given the potential accuracy/injury concerns. If he can land somewhere that has a good offensive-minded coach I think his career could be on a rocket ship trajectory. If he lands somewhere that is not known for prolific offenses like New England or Pittsburgh in recent years, I fear that may be it for his career. Meanwhile, going to a place like Tampa where they just let him throw the ball up 30-40+ times a game then he will be in the best position to succeed.
Prospect Grade: B+
========================================================================
Preseason has come and gone and I continue to be impressed with Penix, as I had hoped this was a perfect landing spot for him, and I believe the Falcons made the right move drafting Penix. While this may come from a place of luck or perhaps great scouting, they made the right decision and got the right man for the job. Now if Kirk is injured, plays poorly, or retires, they have an (college) experienced assassin to come in and take the reins of a young offense with Pitts/Mooney/London/Robinson.
Penix performed how I expected him to, he looked a little too cocky for my liking against Miami, like he knew he was better than the defense. It turned out okay for him in the long run. I wish we were able to see more useful goal-line work this preseason. Regardless, Penix was throwing darts all over the field and made some impressive throws, quickly, both snap-to-throw and just in terms of bulleting the ball at his receivers. Penix is legit and I believe has the best chance, from this class, at being one of the elite of the elites in the NFL, when his time eventually comes.
Prospect Re-grade: B+
(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)