Plays, Pests, and Prayers - Week 15
PLAYS
Quarterbacks:
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. HOU
Tua has thrown for 2+ TDs in 4 straight games and has scored at least 23 points in those matches. The Texans are an extremely flawed team and their defense is coasting on name value alone, not actual performance. Tua is hot and facing an overvalued defense presents good value.
Runningbacks:
Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet vs. GB
Zach Charbonnet is GOOD and is averaging 27 ppg as a full-time starter. The Packers defense is no joke against the run, but they are susceptible to RBs catching the ball out of the backfield, which Charb did extremely well posting 7 catches for 59 yards. DK is just a decoy now which opens up the underneath passing to RBs and JSN.
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White vs. LAC
Rachaad White is another overshadowed/good/better than the starter RB. The Chargers have a middle-of-the-pack defense against the run but are also susceptible in the passing game, which is what makes White an enticing option. I don’t believe there’s a better receiving back in the NFL, sorry CMC.
Wide Receivers:
Panthers WR Adam Thielen vs. DAL
Adam Thielen (9-102-0/11) had a slow start to the season, was injured, and has come back just in time for Bryce Young to be playing a bit better. Thielen has averaged 8.5 receptions, 100.5 yards, and 0.5 TDs in the last two games. Bryce has been improving and relying on Adam Thielen to carry him to these new heights… also Dallas doesn’t have a great defense.
Browns WR Jerry Jeudy vs. KC
Jerry Jeudy is good now, so that’s something we all need to come to terms with. Something else we need to come to terms with is that Kansas City doesn’t have good corners. McDuffie was a nice slot corner but he’s not a lockdown #1 like L’Jarius Sneed was. The only other prolific passer that KC has faced is Joe Burrow, who threw for 258 yards and 2 TDs… KC can be had in the air.
Tight Ends:
Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith vs. HOU
Just like Tua, Jonnu has been hot. Smith was posting a 0-point game until overtime last week because, in Mike McDaniel’s infinite wisdom, he decided to move away from the best thing in their pass game the last month. I’m going to assume he’s learned his lesson this week and if not, Tua is no idiot despite the hits he’s taken. As Antonio Brown has said, I don’t have CTE because you can’t diagnose me with it.
D/ST:
Ravens D/ST vs. NYG
Do I even need to explain this one?
Commanders D/ST vs. NO
It doesn’t feel like I need to explain this either. The Saints have almost no one healthy on offense and are rolling with ‘pretty boy’ Jake Haener. There’s a reason you didn’t know who he was until this week.
PESTS
Quarterbacks:
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. LAC
Baker has lost his magic from earlier this season, and the Chargers defense, while their early season numbers were propped up, has stayed true as one of the best defenses in the league. LAC is a sound, well-coached team and I don’t trust the Bucs lack of weapons/pass blocking to make much headway.
Runningbacks:
Bills RB James Cook vs. DET
The Lions have the #3 run defense in yards allowed, which is already a bad matchup. While Buffalo does want to run the ball, it’ll be tough sledding throughout the game. While the Lions do give up a lot of TDs to running backs, Josh Allen takes a lot of the goal-line scores… and will need to continue to do so if he wants to strengthen his MVP case.
Wide Receivers:
Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. WAS
The Giants offense is abysmal right now but they’ve been able to get targets to Nabers semi-reliably. The issue I see for Nabers is that Marshon Lattimore is active for the first time as a Commander, and has been one of the best in the NFL since he entered the league. I also think this is the first time Nabers has faced a physical corner in the NFL.
Tight Ends:
Ravens TE Mark Andrews vs. NYG
The Giants are bad, but their defense is serviceable, and they are pretty good against the TE. Mark Andrews always has a chance to score a touchdown, but if he doesn’t I think Andrews will struggle as he is older and less athletic than the other TEs on the roster.
D/ST:
Chiefs D/ST vs. CLE
See the piece on Jerry Jeudy.
PRAYERS
Quarterbacks:
Browns QB Jameis Winston vs. KC
See the piece on Jerry Jeudy.
Bears QB Caleb Williams vs. MIN
In the last three games, Caleb has 7 TDs and 0 INTs and has started to run better recently. Recently, Caleb has also had slow starts to games, then does all of his work in the second half, and I don’t expect anything to be different. But Minnesota has the #28 ranked pass defense in terms of yards allowed, and washed-up old Kirk Cousins just moved the ball on them well for the first time in over a month.
Runningbacks:
Saints RB Kendre Miller vs. WAS
Taking another shot at this one, Kendre Miller is a perfect fill-in for Kamara when he takes snaps off and, saw a larger role last week in place of Taysom Hill.
Wide Receivers:
Dolphins WR Malik Washington vs. HOU
Malik Washington is a super fast rookie WR… well you probably could have gathered that by him being on Miami… who has started to see more and more opportunities. Washington is a great returner who has come so close to taking multiple kicks to the house. On top of that Tyreek will draw Derek Stingley in coverage, leaving Washington as the next best threat to stretch the field.
Tight Ends:
Patriots TE Austin Hooper vs. ARI
Three straight games with 4 catches, and he’s scored in back-to-back games. I said this last week, that Austin Hooper is Drake Maye’s favorite target.
D/ST:
Panthers D/ST vs. DAL
In the last 5 games, Carolina’s defense has made some ridiculous improvements… they aren’t the same 30/40+ points allowed team anymore. Just last week they held Philly to 22 points, and are averaging 22.8ppg against in the last 5 games.
Image Source: Megan Briggs / Getty