Top 3 Consensus:

1. Aaron Jones, MIN [RE-SIGNED]

2. Najee Harris, PIT [Signed, LAC]

3. JK Dobbins, LAC

Best Value: Kareem Hunt, KC [RE-SIGNED]

Kareem proved this season that he still has it, and he was good enough to take over the starting role for Isiah Pacheco and held it during their playoff push. KC realistically only had one good lineman in Joe Thuney, who they just traded to Chicago, which was the reason for the poor rushing numbers in the KC run game.

Prediction – Kareem will likely re-sign with KC after testing the open market and getting bad offers across the board. I don’t expect Hunt to sign a deal until after the Draft. A strong RB that can be had for cheap will be disrespected. What else is new?

Sleeper: AJ Dillon, GB [Signed, PHI], and Nick Chubb, CLE

Both of these players are in similar situations, so I can group them together. Chubb was running behind one of the worst lines ever last year. If the numbers don’t back that up, then I can assure you the film does. Chubb and Dillon are both very good power backs who are being disregarded because of injuries (Dillon always has been), but both could start or be a major piece in a committee on just about every team.

Prediction – Chubb moves on from Cleveland in search of a better o-line, potentially finding himself in Denver. Dillon will either stay in GB or follow Aaron Jones to whatever team he goes to… to be his backup once again.

Overrated: Najee Harris, PIT [Signed, LAC]

I’m so done with Najee Harris being in the NFL. He can be a good power back, but there’s something in his and every coach's head that he needs to be an every-down back. Najee isn’t agile enough to make it as an every down/3rd down back, and he is going to make millions this offseason simply because he went to Alabama.

Prediction – Mike Vrabel gets sucked in as any defensive-minded Head Coach and he plays for NE next year.

Top 3 Consensus:

1. Chris Godwin, TB [RE-SIGNED]

2. Davante Adams, NYJ [Signed, LAR]

3. Stefon Diggs, HOU

Best value: Darius Slayton, NYG

Slayton has been doomed by the Giants franchise since being drafted, but he is a sneaky good WR that would be a great complementing piece to a better-run team/offense. Slayton had some great downfield speed in college that we never saw implemented in New York, but that helped him become an all-around solid WR.

Prediction – Depending on what the Giants do with their QB this offseason, Slayton may re-sign, but I think it’s more likely he tests the market. I believe the Rams will move on from Demarcus Robinson for a younger veteran with about the same asking price.

Sleeper: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN; Honorable Mention: Tyler Johnson LAR

NWI finished his 2024 campaign T-9th in Touchdowns with 9, and he did it on just 32 receptions, bringing in a score on a ridiculous 28% of his catches. As the season wore on, we saw him make the turn from being ‘an option’ to being ‘the endzone guy’ for Levis and the Titans offense. With a more capable team, NWI makes a great #3/redzone target with a high upside.

Overrated: Amari Cooper, BUF

Cooper just had the worst season of his career, and it was nothing short of abysmal. Cooper was so bad that he played himself out of a meaningful role on the offense, hidden under the guise of injury rehab. It seems that Father Time has caught up to him, but he has name value, like a number of old wide receivers this FA period, and he will land somewhere.

Top 3 Consensus:

1. Juwan Johnson, NO [RE-SIGNED]

2. Mike Gesicki, CIN [RE-SIGNED]

3. Zach Ertz, WSH [RE-SIGNED]

Best value: Tyler Conklin, NYJ

Conklin is an underrated player with a high floor who could be had on a cheaper deal than the bigger-name TEs available. Conklin can also be transitioned from your team's starting TE to a reliable veteran/mentor in a few years, maximizing his contract throughout a 3-4 year deal.

Prediction – Follows Saleh to San Francisco.

Sleeper: Tommy Tremble, CAR [RE-SIGNED]

Tommy Tremble is one of the best blocking TEs in the league and is young at just 25 years old. Tremble isn’t a pass catcher, so you can get one of the best blockers in the NFL for pennies on the dollar.

Prediction – Joins the armada of blocking TEs Jim Harbaugh is building in LA.

Overrated: Zach Ertz, WSH [RE-SIGNED]

Ertz has name value, but he’ll be 35 and has lost nearly all of his athleticism in recent years. Ertz was a benefactor of being the only consistent option not named Terry McLaurin for Jayden Daniels, and he won’t see the same targeting levels, consistently, or production anywhere other than Washington.

Prediction – He stays in Washington on a 1-year deal unless he retires.

Top 3 Consensus:

1. Ronnie Stanley, BAL [Re-Signed]

2. Trey Smith, KC [Re-Signed]

3. Drew Dalman, ATL [Signed w CHI]

Best Value: Patrick Mekari, BAL [Signed, JAX]

Mekari was considered one tier below the best linemen in the NFL in 2022 and 2023 but after a shaky 2024 season. Mekari can play both Guard and Tackle, so he will find a team hoping to bring Mekari back to his dominant ways.

Prediction – Baltimore would be silly to let him walk, but with a low cap space, he likely will hit the open market. Mekari could help all 32 NFL teams, so it depends on how he values winning vs. money.

Overrated: Trey Smith, KC; [Re-Signed, Franchise Tag]

Honorable Mention: Cam Robinson, MIN

Don’t get me wrong, Trey Smith is a great lineman and deserving of being one of the top options in Free Agency, but if KC doesn’t bring him back then there will be an all-out bidding war by the rest of the NFL to get their hands on Smith… and that’s where the ‘overrated’ label comes into play. Smith should have been a high pick in the draft, so he ‘lost’ money there; he’s won 2 Super Bowls, so the only things left to play for are money and All-Pro honors. He doesn’t need to be in KC for either of those things.

Prediction – Follows the money and goes to the highest bidder.

Top 3 Consensus:

1. Osa Odighizuwa, DAL [RE-SIGNED]

2. Milton Williams, PHI [Signed, NE]

3. Levi Onwuzurike, DET [RE-SIGNED]

Best value: BJ Hill [RE-SIGNED]

Hill is a high-end run stopper who will likely sign a cheap 1-year deal due to his age.

Prediction – Cincy should re-sign him, but I believe he’ll go to Washington to replace Jonathan Allen and get a chance to stick it to the Giants, who didn’t give him a second contract.

Sleeper: Adam Butler, LV [RE-SIGNED]

Butler had 65 tackles and 5.0 sacks last season and has tallied 5.0 sacks in back-to-back seasons. Patrick Graham figured out how to make him work. 

Prediction – Vegas wants Butler, and Butler wants to play in the place that found him success late in his career. He’s also an old Belichick guy, and Brady will see the value in that.

Overrated: Osa Odighizuwa, DAL [RE-SIGNED]

A good player, but not worth the 80 million dollar contract he just signed. Osa is smaller framed, more of a pass-rusher than a run-stopper, and Dallas needs more help in the run game than the pass-rush side.

Top 3 Consensus:

1. Khalil Mack, LAC [RE-SIGNED]

2. Josh Sweat, PHI [Signed, ARI]

3. Haason Reddick, PHI [SIGNED, TB]

Best Value: Dante Fowler, WSH [Signed, DAL]

Fowler had a sneaky good season last year with 10.5 sacks. Fowler has found great success with Dan Quinn and is really only a great value for Washington.

Prediction – 1-year deal with Washington

Because of Fowler’s unique situation, I’m adding Malcolm Koonce, LV as another “Best Value” [RE-SIGNED]

Koonce is, without a doubt, the best player among the edge rushers when you take into account age and contract value. Josh Sweat will cost too much because Philly just dominated the playoffs. Koonce is incredibly talented but MIGHT be able to be had at a discount because he missed the 2024 season.

Prediction – It seems like the Raiders really want Koonce back, but if they can’t work out a deal, I believe Philly will let Sweat walk and bring in Koonce. Koonce was a former Mike Mayock pick and is now buddy-buddy with the brass in Philly.

Sleeper : Joseph Ossai, CIN [RE-SIGNED]

Ossai ended the season with 5 sacks in their last 7 games and 10 QB hits over that span. After a rough bunch of years, Ossai was hitting his stride and helped shore up their awful defense during their win streak.

Prediction – He goes to Indy to reunite with the Bengals DC (how did he get a job so quickly?) or gets picked up by a team with a very good NFL scouting team.

Overrated: Haason Reddick, PHI [SIGNED, TB]

Realistically, Reddick should get a one-year deal that is loaded up with incentives, but he had a nice run a few years ago, and you just know some team out there will pay up and give him a multi-year deal.

Prediction – Reddick holding out puts himself in a tough position to get a contract, especially with a contender. Going back to AZ and Jonathon Gannon, the team he had his best two seasons with/drafted by, would be a storybook reunion.

Top 3 Consensus:

1. Zack Baun, PHI [RE-SIGNED]

2. Dre Greenlaw, SF [Signed, DEN]

3. Nick Bolton, KC [RE-SIGNED]

Best value: Dre Greenlaw, SF [Signed, DEN];

Honorable Mention: Lavonte David, TB [RE-SIGNED]

Greenlaw comes with a lengthy injury history, particularly in his lower extremities. I’m not a big believer in injury histories playing a big role in player valuation anymore. Greenlaw has been a staple of the SF defense for years.

Prediction – He will most likely sign a 1-year prove-it deal because of his rich injury history. Whichever team signs him should be getting a top LB in the league at a discount.

Sleeper: Jack Sanborn, CHI [Signed, DAL]

Sanborn was seriously coming into his own in his two starts last season when Tremaine Edmunds was injured, but Edmunds returned, and Sanborn didn’t play much. At just 25, he will be extremely cheap and could be one of the best FA signings this time next year.

Prediction – Follows Matt Eberflus to Dallas

Overrated: Nick Bolton, KC [RE-SIGNED]

Bolton isn’t bad, but he is by no means the 3rd best LB in FA, and you’ll have to pay up even more because I can almost assure you there will be a bidding war. I don’t think a one-dimensional run-stopper will be worth 10-12+ (likely more) Million per year.

Top 3 Consensus:

1. Jevon Holland, MIA [Signed, NYG]

2. Talanoa Hufanga, SF [Signed, DEN]

3. Justin Reid, KC [Signed, NO]

Best value: Jeremy Chinn, WSH [Signed, LV]

Chinn is more of an LB/Safety hybrid who was a Pro Bowl-level talent early in his career. Injuries derailed his time in Carolina, but he looked like his old self this past season in Washington

Prediction – Washington would be crazy not to want him back, and I don’t see Chinn getting any huge offers from other teams.

Sleeper: Jason Pinnock, NYG [Signed, SF]

Pinnock is a converted CB to Safety who had a breakout in 2023 as he was making the transition but played so poorly this past season that he was cut while still being a starter. Was it a blip year in 2023 or the start of something more?

Prediction – Patrick Graham signs him in LV as a league-minimum depth move with upside. upside that Graham saw when drafting him years ago.

Overrated: Jevon Holland, MIA [Signed, NYG]

Holland is a solid Safety but is not clearly better than Hufanga, Reid, or Moehrig. Holland has been held in high regard for no particular reason his who NFL career, and that will be leveraged into a team overpaying for him.

Prediction – It will be any of the bad teams with a lot of cap space, the ones with coaches on the hot seat in particular.