2025 Scouting Report: QB Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Bio:
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 223
Schools: USC (2021), Ole Miss (2022-2024)
Career Stats: (28-13) as a starter; 11,970 yards, 81 TDs, 27 INTs, 65.2% completion rate.
2024 Stats: (10-3); 4,279 yards (3rd), 29 TD (T-10th), 6 INT (T-91st), 69.3% completion rate, 10.8 YPA (1st)
Accolades: 2024 First-Team All-SEC | 2025 Gator Bowl MVP
This is going to be one of my more unpopular opinions on the 2025 class, but I don’t think Jaxson Dart is going to be that good of a QB. Dart has been gaining a lot of heat lately and many suspect he’ll be a first-round pick, in part due to this being a weak QB class. I’ll tell you this, Dart is not doing this grouping of QBs any favors.
I’ve watched a lot of Jaxson Dart tape this offseason, and some preliminary work last season while looking at some opponents of theirs. That work, in conjunction with the Combine and Senior Bowls – I don’t see the same thing everyone else does.
Let me start off by saying Dart isn’t awful, I think he’s an alright prospect who with development could be a starter at the next level, but he isn’t there yet and likely won’t be for a few years. Like Sam Darnold. If Jaxson Dart were my backup QB I wouldn’t be upset. But, since Dart is being pushed as the third or fourth-best QB in the class, a potential first-round pick, you don’t have the luxury of waiting a few years for Dart to develop, at least from a fan perspective.
Because of those expectations, and how I currently view him, I wouldn’t draft Dart until at the earliest, the third round. But what do I see wrong with him?
I don’t see Dart work the mid-range or even the quick-short passing range. He plays football like the goal of the game is to score a touchdown in as few plays as possible, or die trying. What I mean by that is, like Sanders, McCord, Shough (report out tomorrow), and to a lesser degree Cam Ward, is they don’t work progressions. None of these guys are that proficient at throwing to anything but the first guy they decide to lock on to.
Dart throws bombs all game, and if the play drags on for too long/the coverage underneath gets too soft… because he throws it deep every chance he gets, he will (smartly) hit the RB/TE checkdown. This style of football works in college ball, but he isn’t ‘playing Quarterback’. He isn’t making throws into tight windows and he isn’t relying on timing plays to carve up defenses methodically.
When Dart’s first throw isn’t there he more often than not freezes. You can see the panic set in before he either forces it into coverage, hoping one of his excellent WRs marks a play, or he’ll scramble and take off downfield. Dart is a decent runner, but unless you have an elite arm or elite rushing ability, you become a ‘tweener’ of sorts, and NFL defenses will eat him up. It’s exactly what happened to Sam Darnold early in his career, and exactly what happened when the Rams and Lions stopped respecting his arm.
When Dart has to play quarterback, he is not good. His games against LSU, South Carolina, and Georgia are perfect examples.
LSU – 24/42 (57.1%) for 284 yards, 1 TD/ 1 INT
S. Car – 14/27 (51.9%) for 285 yards, 0 TD/ 0 INT
GA – 13/22 (59.1%) for 199 yards, 1 TD/ 1 INT
Per game - 56.0% for 256 yards, 0.67 TD/ 0.67 INT
A stark contrast to his other 10 games, against much weaker competition, where he averaged:
73.3% for 351.1 yards, 2.7 TD/ 0.4 INT
The second grouping also includes a 4th stinker against Mississippi State, his only game below 150 yards. Dart padded his stats in 9 games against some of the worst competition possible.
In games where Ole Miss had a huge lead and Dart could sit back and launch Hail Marys every play, he was great, and his wide receivers helped make him great, but if a defense could sack him they could stop him. Dart’s only good game against the SEC came against Arkansas… where he torched them for 500 yards and 6 TDs, but he was only sacked once.
He was sacked 4 times against Kentucky, another game well below his averages, but still a solid performance throwing for 261 and 1 TD, sacked 6 times by LSU, and again 4 times by Florida. This sounds A LOT like college/early career Sam Darnold.
The Data on Jaxson Dart:
15 TDs/1 INT in 3 games (Furman, Georgia Southern, Arkansas)
14 TDs/4 INTs in the other 10 games…
6 TDs/4 INTs in 6 games against the top competition (Kentucky, S. Car., LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida
Jaxson Dart crushes the weak teams. He had the one outlier match against Arkansas this season, but otherwise, he is about 1 TD pass per game against the SEC. This data holds up in his 2023 season as well.
Going into this I had already known how Dart graded out, but I also had a feeling the tape wouldn’t match up, and it doesn’t. Dart is graded as the best QB in the class according to my numbers but he simply is not. All this tells me is I need to get more in-depth with how I adjust stats for strength of schedule.
| ThrowRtg | MobRtg | H | W | Last | First | School | adjCompPct | adjYds/Comp | adjTD% | adjAtt/INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.391 | 6.663 | 75 | 223 | Dart | Jaxson | Mississippi | 77.3 | 17.3 | 8.1 | 59.2 |
ThrowRtg = Combination of passing stats, adjusted stats, and strength of schedule.
MobRtg = Trying to identify/reward QBs that are more mobile than traditional passers, as teams look for more athletic QBs
ThrowRtg and MobRtg are on a scale of 0-10, but there are instances where players can be above or below the 0-10 threshold.
Adj. = Stats weighted against strength of opponents
Draft Outlook:
There’s a lot of momentum on Dart right now and I don’t think the NFL values him as a first-round pick, which may come as a surprise. I expect Dart to be a second-round pick because a team panics and is worried he won’t fall into the third round. I wouldn’t draft Dart, there are other QBs around his valuation that excite me more, Riley Leonard, Seth Henigan, and Tyler Shough… who I would actually draft in the second round. There are too many similarly talented QBs that I see as having more potential for me to waste a pick on a player I wouldn’t want on my team.
Career Outlook:
Dart will be drafted as a backup, potentially as the heir-apparent behind Aaron Rodgers/Derek Carr/Geno Smith. Fans will love the pick so there are easy publicity points to be won as well, but as the years drag on and the excitement fades, no one will be thinking about him come the 2026 draft. When was the last time you thought about 2023 third-round pick Hendon Hooker?
Image Source: Vasha Hunt - Imagn Images
